Brig Carleton-Smith, Comm-ander of 16 Air Assault Brigade, said talks with the Taliban would be the best way to a lasting peace.
His bleak words support concern that the insurgents are still launching deadly attacks, despite huge losses.
Two years ago ex-Army head General Sir Mike Jackson said he believed the Taliban could be defeated.
But Brig Carleton-Smith said: “We’re not going to win this war. It’s about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that’s not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army.
"We may leave with there still being a low but steady ebb of rural insurgency.
"If the Taliban were prepared to sit on the other side of the table and talk about a political settlement, it’s precisely the sort of progress that concludes insurgencies like this.”
Last week, Britain’s ambassador in Kabul reportedly said we were “destined to fail”.
But the Foreign Office called a leaked French diplomatic memo about Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles “utter nonsense”.
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